Revenue at Risk Calculator for Customer Accounts
Revenue at risk is the recurring revenue from customers who might leave. List your customers with their annual revenue and a risk level to see the worst case, the expected loss weighted by your chance of losing each level, the share of total revenue at stake and which accounts to save first. Free.
Write one customer per line: name, annual revenue and high, medium, low or ok. Set your own chance of losing a customer at each level. Results update as you type, and the figures stay in this browser until you start over.
Revenue at risk example
A software company with $600,000 of annual revenue has flagged six customers: two at high risk, two at medium and two at low. It expects to lose half of high-risk revenue, a quarter of medium and a tenth of low.
| Level | Revenue | Expected loss |
|---|---|---|
| High, 50% | $72,000 | $36,000 |
| Medium, 25% | $54,000 | $13,500 |
| Low, 10% | $72,000 | $7,200 |
| Total | $198,000 | $56,700 |
The worst case is $198,000, 33% of revenue; the expected loss is $56,700, 9.45%. The largest expected loss is Acme, $24,000 of $48,000, so that account comes first.
Revenue at risk formulas
- Worst case: the sum of revenue from every flagged customer.
- Expected loss: the sum of each customer’s revenue × the chance of losing it.
- Share at risk: revenue at risk ÷ total revenue × 100.
Measure what you keep
Track the customers you do lose with the churn rate calculator, see whether expansion makes up for it with the net revenue retention calculator, and keep your recurring revenue base up to date with the ARR calculator.
Frequently asked questions
What is revenue at risk?
It is the recurring revenue from customers who show signs of leaving or cutting back, such as falling usage, unpaid invoices, a lost champion or a competitor in the account. Measuring it in money tells the team which accounts to save first, before they churn.
How do you calculate revenue at risk?
List the customers you have flagged with their annual revenue and a risk level. The worst case adds up all their revenue. The expected loss multiplies each customer’s revenue by your chance of losing it at that level: $48,000 at high risk and 50% is $24,000.
Where do the chances of loss come from?
From your own history: of the customers you marked high risk last year, how many actually left? The calculator starts at 50%, 25% and 10% for high, medium and low risk only so that it works out of the box; replace them with your numbers.
How do I decide a customer’s risk level?
Use a few signals you can check: product usage, support tickets, payment delays, contract end date, changes in your contact person and how the last review went. Agree what high, medium and low mean so that every account manager scores the same way.
What should I do with customers at risk?
Start with the largest expected losses. Give each account an owner and a next step: a call with the decision maker, a usage review, a fix for an open issue or an early renewal offer. Re-score the list every month and track how much revenue you kept.
Is what I enter stored or sent anywhere?
No. The calculation runs in your browser and the figures are saved only in this browser so you can come back to them. Nothing you enter is sent to SalesBond or anyone else. Click Start over to clear it.
Related tools: churn rate calculator, net revenue retention calculator, ARR calculator. More on sales and running a sales team on the SalesBond blog and the home page.
Official sources
- Wikipedia: Expected value — an amount multiplied by the probability of it happening.
- Wikipedia: Churn rate — customers and revenue lost over a period.
Updated on Nov 7, 2026. This calculator is for information only and is not tax, legal or payroll advice. The expected loss is only as good as your risk levels and chances of loss: base them on how often you have actually lost customers.
